10 October, 2006

Important Thoughts, Financial and Economic Advice

Posted by alex in Financial Column, George Lenz at 3:33 am | Permanent Link

By George Lenz

How to value a stock? This question has a significant practical meaning: correct stock valuation leads to successful investment, and eventually to significant realized gains. Yet it is not an easy question: there are thousands of books and articles written on the topic, and what is cheap for one investment specialist is often expensive for another. Yet some long-term trends persist: stocks are valued today under more optimistic rather than pessimistic scenarios, every potential profit opportunity is adding to the stock’s value, even if prudence requires to disregard it, and lower return is accepted as normal or appropriate. Some cynics say that the analysts and stockbrokers are simply using every opportunity to increase the price of stocks they sell to the American investor.

Thus it is necessary to have a simple algorithm for stock valuation, in order to determine whether a stock is overvalued or not.

Personally I use a simple valuation technique for a first-look stock selection: I take average of last 5 years or 20 quarters earnings of the company, multiply it by 10, add its net tangible assets and discount the number by 20%. Then I compare the result to the capitalization of the company: if capitalization is below this number by 5% or more, I look into selected company closer, and conduct a thorough analysis of its financial statements along with industry and country perspectives. While there are few companies on the market that satisfy these requirements, and most are rejected after thorough analysis because of long-term financial or business problems, those that are left are very good investments. Thus a savvy long-term investor can use this technique to estimate how much more he is paying for the stock than it’s actually worth.

I noted a strange tendency on behalf of successful Whites to attribute the material successes of the jews not to their mischievous and cunning business dealings, employed to take advantage of the goyim, but to some kind of “special abilities” or even “talents” and “hard work” of the jews. The strangest thing is that even some WN suffer from this weakness and even recommend jewish writings as serious advice or a thing to emulate. This weakness stems from the Aryan desire to attribute his noble qualities to his enemy, and can be overcome through the use of ideological sessions.

What’s an ideological session? It’s a meeting of comrades, generally from one or a number of closely related organizations, in order to discuss and learn ideological background for struggle, as well as to build up confidence in movement’s ideas. We are using ideological sessions as an instrument of exchange of experience, building up confidence and discussing and formulating our ideology. It’s a very fruitful technique. It allows for significant improvement of morale and performance of comrades. I’ll give an anecdotal example: I was asked to conduct an ideological session for national-socialist and nationalist comrades, and asked them in the beginning, how many of them fully believe in our ideology. It turned out that only 3 out of 16 comrades attending did. After two hours ideological session, examining the strength of our ideas and the vileness of our enemies, 7 comrades declared that they wholeheartedly believe our ideology and will increase the level of contribution. Thus to some of our more jew-naïve comrades, it is a good idea to attend an ideological session; they would then rid themselves of their strange attitudes towards the jews.

* * *

I am looking into Hanover Insurance Group (THG). The company has a good brand name and market position, yet suffered significant losses in its property insurance business, due to underpricing of its policies. The company is a target for merger, its internal value is 51.7 vs current value 46.0, and would increase significantly should a merger take place. My recommendation is 6-12 months buy.

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  7. 8 Responses to “Important Thoughts, Financial and Economic Advice”

    1. Olde Dutch Says:

      George—What do you think is driving the DOW to new highs?

      BTW. Did you watch this presentation:

    2. Shabbos Shabazz Says:

      “What do you think is driving the DOW to new highs?”

      A Jew Canoe- a Cadillac.

    3. Olde Dutch Says:

      I dunno. GM is a couple of dollars off of itz year high.

    4. sgruber Says:

      I’m tired of this guy. Who names his column “Important Thoughts”?

      In a certain experiment, conducted some years ago, a troup of monkeys (honest simians, not negroes) were provided with darts. The monkeys were instructed to – well, they didn’t require much instruction. The results were expected. Unexpected was the result of the experiment. The provided targets, y’see, were papers listing various stocks; and the comparison made was between the monkeyshine and that of professional stock analysts. I will omit the unexpected result, as I wish to spare the feelings of our various high-toned high rollers and other con men, I mean respectable gamblers.

      Can’t we get stock tips anywhere? And don’t we? My inbox is already full of them–unwanted and unwonted.

      What’s next? A column on how to put on three inches?

    5. fdtwainth Says:

      2 Olde Dutch

      “George—What do you think is driving the DOW to new highs?”

      FRS money printing and influx of money from Eastern European and Asian markets.

      “BTW. Did you watch this presentation:

      Yes, I actually posted it first on VNN: http://www.vanguardnewsnetwork.com/?p=1164#comments

    6. fdtwainth Says:

      2 sgruber

      The difference between the jewish stocks tips, intended to fleece you dry, and my stocks tips are intended to make money for you, and I have necessary education, qualifications and experience to deliever . If one has dilligently followed my advise, one would have made money already.

    7. Donger Says:

      Saw a TV crime show of a rabbi weiss who was the largest man ever convicted of insurance fraud. During the trail he was jailed and most of his money was frozen by the court. Most. The show explained that his lawyer got him some about of money. He uses his cell phone and trades stocks with this money and makes $30 million in days. He skips bail and uses the $30 million to flee. Something tells me he did not value companies to make $30 million. What is my point? It is a rigged game. I agree not to follow the joos advice. But finding their footprints in the tea leaves of the market could be quite profitable I think. But how?

    8. Donger Says:

      edit – “got him some about of money” should be “got him some of the frozen money freed for his personal use.”