Things are beginning to look pretty good for a silver ETF.
The commodity market recently increased the amount of money necessary to be held in traders' accounts for the purchase of silver futures contracts (something I would never recommend unless your a millionaire). This suggests they are preparing for coming high volatility in silver. What might cause that? Approval of the silver ETF.
Now, today, the SEC has announced that a silver ETF can list on the Amex. And it has decided that it does not believe the silver ETF will create liquidity problems for silver.
This is pretty big news -- for the silver bugs.
Today, even though gold was down and the stock market reversed down (probably in my opinion marking the start of a major down trend in the stock market), silver was up strongly.
Here's the announcement.
Another step forward for silver ETF
SEC approves rule change; silver rallies on speculationBy John Spence, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:43 PM ET Mar 21, 2006BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- A controversial exchange-traded fund tied to silver prices moved a step closer to reality Tuesday.
The Securities and Exchange Commission has approved a rule change for a silver ETF in registration from Barclays Global Investors that would allow the product to list on the American Stock Exchange, although the fund has not yet been cleared to launch by regulators.
BGI spokeswoman Christine Hudacko said the comment period on the silver ETF's proposed rule change recently closed, and the SEC order says the product can now list on the Amex. However, she said the registration statement submitted by BGI has not taken effect.
"This takes the process one step further, but we're still in the quiet period and no launch date has been determined," Hudacko said.
Silver futures on Tuesday traded at their highest level since late 1983 on speculation the ETF may soon be approved.
There are currently two ETFs that invest in gold: StreetTracks Gold Trust and Shares Comex Gold Trust. The bullion is held in a vault and shares represent ownership in the precious metal, and the silver ETF has a similar design.
The SEC said it received 255 letters during a recently closed public comment period on the proposed rule change allowing the silver ETF to list on the Amex. Of those received, 248 comments supported the rule change and 7 opposed it.
The Silver Users Association, a nonprofit lobby group interested in keeping an orderly silver market, has led the opposition to the silver ETF.
The SEC said in general, commenters opposed to the fund argued that approval of the silver ETF would result in serious liquidity problems in the silver market.
Those opposed to the silver ETF said it would "negatively impact the silver market because . . . creation would require the holding of silver in allocated accounts, which would drain large amounts of silver from the open market and cause higher prices for silver products."
Additionally, the opposition claimed resulting higher silver prices caused by the creation of the silver ETF would cause the loss of jobs specific to the silver industry.
However, the SEC said it sided with the Amex's argument that, like other derivative products, the silver ETF would increase the efficiency and transparency of the silver market.
Therefore, the SEC found the proposed rule change "in the public interest," saying it does not believe the silver ETF is "likely to cause serious liquidity problems in the silver market."
Cliff Weber, senior vice president of the Amex ETF Marketplace, said the exchange is "glad to see the SEC make an important step towards making the iShares Silver Trust available to the public."
If they are buying up a gajillion oz of silver to hold for this ETF isnt that going to have a short term upward effect on price?
Which may be released gradually if the ETF is approved? That was the interesting point of the article I had posted.
Also, is it possible the positive effects of having an etf are already priced into silver?
If anybody's got a crystal ball and can predict the price with certainty-- get on out there make a mint and give us a call!
If they are buying up a gajillion oz of silver to hold for this ETF isnt that going to have a short term upward effect on price?
Silver went up strongly today -- despite gold going down and the stock market reversing down in an ominous way.
Which may be released gradually if the ETF is approved? That was the interesting point of the article I had posted.
It may well go up sharply and then, once the EFT is finally approved, head downward -- as your article suggests.
Also, is it possible the positive effects of having an etf are already priced into silver?
Perhaps. However, the stock market has been (until today) going up sharply -- so it's unlikely that silver would have been going down yet until today anyway. Time will tell.
If anybody's got a crystal ball and can predict the price with certainty-- get on out there make a mint and give us a call!
To make a mint on this will require luck.
I think that there is a more important issue than the ETF.
China just opened its' silver market. The Chinese have a long history with an affinity for silver. The Chinese are heavy savers , at over than 30% of their income contrasted to Americans who save nothing. The buying potential of 1.5 billion savers , far exceeds that of 300 million non-savers , with navel rings.
Long and short , Chinese demand will dwarf any American ETF .
( Just as Chinese demand drove copper from $0.80 to $2.20 , silver will be copper on steroids .)
.
[color="Red"]"sneaky 'GD' Jews are all alike." ......Marge Schott
" I'd rather have a trained monkey working for me than a nigger,"
I think that there is a more important issue than the ETF.
China just opened its' silver market. The Chinese have a long history with an affinity for silver. The Chinese are heavy savers , at over than 30% of their income contrasted to Americans who save nothing. The buying potential of 1.5 billion savers , far exceeds that of 300 million non-savers , with navel rings.
Long and short , Chinese demand will dwarf any American ETF .
( Just as Chinese demand drove copper from $0.80 to $2.20 , silver will be copper on steroids .)
Good point. But I do think the ETF is playing a definite role in at least today's rise in silver prices. We'll see what happens over the next few weeks. But, yes, China will no doubt be a huge factor in silver and all commodities -- as will India.