I'm thinking that since the ZOG seems to be orchestrating the reduction in price of gasoline til after the November elections, might not the ZOG also be orchestrating the price of silver lower, as well, and for the same political reasons ??

If so, then nows the time to purchase silver because like gasoline, it's sure to skyrocket after the elections.

Devere, anybody ?? Whatchathink of my theory ???

Saville -- the best market analyst I've come across -- believes oil has fallen out of bed because of oversupply of oil around the world. If supply gets ahead of demand, prices fall. Simple as that. No government manipulation needed to explain what's happened. The simplest explanation is generally the most likely to be truest.

It's hard -- if not impossible -- for governments to really directly control the prices of huge markets, like oil. Of course, if they want to increase prices, they can always start a nuclear war with Iran. That will raise oil prices (because it will threaten supply and demand will then get ahead of supply).

The problem with junk silver coins is that you don't know how much silver they contain -- because of wear and tear over the years. So to cash it in for dollars, it has to be weighed. If you, instead, buy "silver rounds" -- pure silver of one ounce and I think fractional amounts are available too -- it's still inexpensive, but you know exactly how many ounces of silver you have at all times. One silver round = one ounce. One one ounce silver round would cost you about $12.00 plus a small mark-up right now.

For that reason, I recommend silver rounds over junk silver. (They're also cleaner.) (They're also quite beautiful.)

As far as silver bars. They're more expensive, of course. A 32 ounce silver bar would cost over $384. But more to the point, they're heavy to lug around.

You can buy Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's) in gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). Here you buy shares of a fund. But the shares are backed precisely by gold or silver bullion. This is probably the easiest way to buy gold and silver. No storage problems. Of course, then you don't have the metal directly in your own hands -- which makes me feel a bit uncomfortable ultimately. But these fund shares move in value directly with gold and silver, since they're backed 100% by the bullion.

The problem with junk silver coins is that you don't know how much silver they contain -- because of wear and tear over the years. So to cash it in for dollars, it has to be weighed.

Where is this ? I've never seen that . People simply buy and sell on a multiple of face value , now 8.15 . who weighs common junk silver ? Most all $1000 face comes out to 715 ounces . $1000 bags aren't weighed , only counted .

Where is this ? I've never seen that . People simply buy and sell on a multiple of face value , now 8.15 . who weighs common junk silver ? Most all $1000 face comes out to 715 ounces . $1000 bags aren't weighed , only counted .

It's been a while since I've bought junk silver coins. But I believe the bags are weighed. (I could be wrong about this.) I'll make a point of asking about this when I go to a coin dealer next.

Devere, do you think that Peter Schiff's analasys is fairly accurate? According to his articles, after the correction to about 550 ( which has happened) gold will climb again and will be doing very nicely by next year.

Devere, do you think that Peter Schiff's analasys is fairly accurate? According to his articles, after the correction to about 550 ( which has happened) gold will climb again and will be doing very nicely by next year.

This is certainly possible. In fact, I'm assuming so. However, I think gold and silver will first make one more real test of their recent and June lows -- at least, I hope they do so that I can increase my available funds and improve my long term positions.

When gold gets to about 615+- and silver to about $12.00 (silver is very close right now), what happens right afterward will probably tell us whether there will be another test of the lows. The market will tell us.

But the long term trend is still up for gold and silver. That fact probably (nothing is certain until it is done) predicts significantly higher prices before the end of next year.

On the next drop down, if you haven't gotten in, you should begin to scale into long term investment positions in the bullion and perhaps gold and silver mining stocks -- or, if you are more of a speculator, like me, take a long term futures option position in gold and silver.

Get ready, folks. Gold looks like it is ready to take one more move down within the next five days or so.

It may not, of course. Short term predictions are difficult in commodities (long term trends are, on the other hand, very easy to spot -- that's why I recommend only long term option trading). I'll let you know if I think the correction is over and the next upleg about to start.

To be safe, you can always simply buy a one year option call in gold (and silver) now. Prices are low -- though I believe they may get still lower soon.

Get ready, folks. Gold looks like it is ready to take one more move down within the next five days or so.

It may not, of course. Short term predictions are difficult in commodities (long term trends are, on the other hand, very easy to spot -- that's why I recommend only long term option trading). I'll let you know if I think the correction is over and the next upleg about to start.

To be safe, you can always simply buy a one year option call in gold (and silver) now. Prices are low -- though I believe they may get still lower soon.

In other words, I think it's worth waiting a bit longer before you buy a long term option in gold and silver. The lower price you can get in at, the better, obviously.

The risk is that Bush will attack Iran before the dip happens and gold and silver will soar overnight -- and you (and I) will have missed out. Actually, I won't miss out because I already have long positions just in case the evil idiot does attack Iran. But I will not have nearly as strong a position as I'll have if I can catch a near term dip down to lower prices before the evil idiot does his thing.

Keep us advised. Links, too. Where are you getting your info?

Keep us advised. Links, too. Where are you getting your info?

Me? Which info are you wondering about?

The gold and silver info. What's going into your analysis of gold?

Also, could you possibly recommend an internet based commodities broker? Are these even worth looking into if you're interested in long term?

I remember in a thread a while ago in which you took part, some folks talking about some software available where they could place conditional orders, for example, name a price at which they would buy, and how many to buy at such a price, and where to sell. Where could I find some info on this?

And finally, what do you think about foreign exchange currency trading? I did some readon on it at investopedia, seems like there could be some safe long term money to be made there for the political/economic junkies who actually follow it.

The gold and silver info. What's going into your analysis of gold?

1. Fundamental analysis (analysis of factors affecting supply and demand in a commodity or stock) -- mostly Steven Saville's analysis, which is the best I've found. Look him up on Google. But I read quite a lot of other market analysts also. Plus my own analysis and understanding of world events.

2. My own (and Steven Saville's) technical analysis -- studying chart patterns. But I put a lot of time into my own chart studies. Besides the price movements -- price trends, price patterns (triangles, wedges, flags, etc.), and trend lines -- in daily, weekly, and monthly charts (and sometimes hourly charts or smaller time periods when I'm entering or exiting) -- I rely mostly (but not solely) on moving averages, stochastics, and donchian channels. You can study these and other rather fascinating things by buying a book on the technical analysis: Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets.

Also, could you possibly recommend an internet based commodities broker? Are these even worth looking into if you're interested in long term?

I've pm'd you the name of a broker. Any broker will do -- as long as he's not working against you. Because you will make your own trading decisions (rather than relying on your broker's advice) -- and the number of your trading decisions each year will be very few.

I remember in a thread a while ago in which you took part, some folks talking about some software available where they could place conditional orders, for example, name a price at which they would buy, and how many to buy at such a price, and where to sell. Where could I find some info on this?

I don't use such software. I do, however, subscribe to a charting service: CRB Charts: 800-621-5271

I prefer my own analysis. More fun -- and, I think, more accurate.

And finally, what do you think about foreign exchange currency trading? I did some readon on it at investopedia, seems like there could be some safe long term money to be made there for the political/economic junkies who actually follow it.

I don't do it. Most of those I know who do are short term traders. In general, I don't believe in short term trading -- unless I happen to see something very obvious. Short term traders, on a net profit/loss over many trades, lose nearly inevitably -- because the shorter the term of trading, the less fundamentals determine price movements and the more emotions determine price movements. Emotions are far less predictable than fundamentals. From a technical standpoint, long term charts and trends are MUCH more predictable than short term charts and trends. Short term is pretty close to a crap shoot. Long term is near certainty. Long term options give you the ability to ride out the nearly random short terms moves/trends against your position and ride the much more predicatable long term trend waves. This conclusion on my part is based on decades of experience trading on my part -- making a large amount of money by luck essentially trading long term (without really knowing why I had made these profits) and then losing everything trying to trade short term. I am sharing with those of you White men who are interested an understanding of trading that cost me tens of thousands of dollars to learn (even hundreds of thousands in today's dollars). But it's a free world (well, in a few respects). And you are certainly free to learn your own lessons and ignore mine.

The final drop of gold and silver prices -- before the restart of the next major bull leg -- appears to now be underway.

Gold and silver prices are dropping significantly as I write today -- and appear to be closing on their lows of the day, a bearish sign (a sign of further lows to come soon). I believe gold and silver will continue down and test their September 15th lows. I think they will probably (but not certainly) break those lows and continue down to test their June 14th lows. The odds of their breaking these lows are less likely than that they will probably break their September 15th lows. But it is possible that they will.

If gold does break through its June 14th low, I doubt that December gold will drop farther than about $550 -- although, of course, it may. If it does break below $550 (its 320 day moving average) it could drop down as far as between $490 and $510 -- very unlikely that it will drop below this. If gold drops to $510, Saville says he will mortgage the final 40 acres of his farm (in China) and buy gold with the proceeds. He's not being literal, of course, but in other words this would be an opportunity of a lifetime. But note that gold just closed today at about $580 -- not really that far from lifetime opportunity prices, even right now.

When to start buying? I believe the odds are now good that gold in this down move will continue dropping (with some ups and downs) for another three to five days. If that happens, I intend at that time to try to establish my long term positions in gold and silver. If it drops further, I will buy back my short positions on my gold and silver spreads at a profit, leaving me with straight calls in those gold and silver positions (transforming those option spreads into straight calls).

Such are my own plans. Whether I will be able to implement those plans successfully remains to be seen. It depends on what gold and silver actually do here. If they suddenly decide to stop and go straight back up (possible but unlikely), then I won't be able to do what I want and I'll have to try to make the best of those realities. In other words, you have to remain flexible -- because the market is not completely predictable. In the words of our great Scottish poet, Robert Burns:

But, Mousie, thou art no thy lane,
In proving foresight may be vain;
The best-laid schemes o' mice an 'men
Gang aft agley,
An'lea'e us nought but grief an' pain,
For promis'd joy!

Gold just dropped by 20,80 to $582,50, the biggest one day drop I have ever seen. What is the cause for that?

Edit : Just found out why.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/03/markets/gold.reut/index.htm?postversion=2006100311

"Falls in oil truly undermined sentiment for gold. The market wasn't too confident about the sentiment for gold even when prices were rising," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, associate director at Nihon Unicom Corp. "Oil will continue to set direction for gold."

Gold just dropped by 20,80 to $582,50, the biggest one day drop I have ever seen. What is the cause for that?

No one really knows, but I will share my best guess. The price of both silver and gold is strongly correlated with the price of oil. Oil is the most manipulated commodity and the price of oil, which this minute is $59.20, has been manipulated down strongly to favor incumbents this November's elections.

Enkidu

Question for English whizbos: Should the sentence have been written, "The prices of both silver and gold are..."?