By John Whitesides

DES MOINES, Iowa | Thu Dec 8, 2011 11:45am EST
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/08/us-usa-campaign-paul-idUSTRE7B719920111208

(Reuters) - Could Republican Ron Paul, the libertarian longshot with a loyal army of supporters, steal the first big prize of the 2012 presidential race in Iowa?

Recent polls show Paul in second place in Iowa, behind the surging Gingrich and essentially even with Romney in the shifting Republican race to pick a challenger to President Barack Obama.

Paul, the Texas congressman and doctor, has two big strengths that make him a wild card in a state where the caucus process requires voters to gather with neighbors on a cold winter's night to cast their ballots.

He has an enthusiastic and loyal band of supporters, many young and new to politics, that has grown since his failed 2008 presidential bid. And Iowa political activists rate his campaign organization as the best in the state.

"Ron Paul can absolutely win the Iowa caucuses," said Steve Deace, a conservative radio host in Iowa. "His people are the most passionate, his support is underestimated and his ground game is the best."

While rivals rise and fall and social conservatives search for a favorite to rally around, Paul's Iowa support has steadily climbed. It hit 18 percent in last weekend's Des Moines Register Iowa poll, up from 12 percent in October and 7 percent in June.

"If the caucus were held today, Gingrich would underperform because his organization has not caught up with his poll numbers," said prominent Iowa religious conservative Bob Vander Plaats. "Ron Paul would overperform because his organization is better than his poll numbers."

Paul has built an Iowa organization that includes a heavy online presence, numerous mailings and e-mail messages to potential supporters and repeated visits from the candidate, who is back in Iowa on Thursday.

A recent poll in Iowa found two-thirds of those surveyed had been contacted by Paul's campaign. None of his rivals had contacted even half of the respondents.

"We're just doing the traditional grunt work," said Paul's Iowa chairman Drew Ivers, a veteran of four previous caucus campaigns who is a member of the state party's central committee.

"Talking to neighbors, knocking on doors, airing ads and introducing people to the candidate is what a caucus campaign is about," Ivers said.

Paul has five paid staff members in the state but relies heavily on volunteers for neighbor-to-neighbor persuasion. The campaign hopes to unleash hundreds of college students to canvas for support during the Christmas holidays.