(I'm not putting this in "This Just In" because there isn't any specific timeline here, just some speculation of what Moscow may or may not do. Taking the usual jewsmedia bias into account, see it as a sort of Coming Attractions.)

Russia May Turn Focus to Pro-U.S. Ukraine After Beating Georgia

Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Now that Russia has humiliated Georgia with a punishing military offensive, it may shift its attention to reining in pro-Western Ukraine, another American ally in the former Soviet Union.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's first order of business likely will be to try to thwart Ukraine's bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

"The Moscow authorities will use this opportunity to remind Ukraine of the damages of allying itself with NATO,'' said Geoffrey Smith at Renaissance Capital investment bank in Kiev.

. . .

NATO leaders in April promised Ukraine and Georgia eventual membership while declining them fast- track status. Russia, which has also denounced U.S. plans to station missile defense sites in former Soviet satellites Poland and the Czech Republic, says the expansion of the Cold War-era alliance to its borders is a security threat.

NATO should affirm the potential of Georgia and Ukraine to become alliance members in the face of Russia's incursion into Georgia, senior U.S. officials said yesterday in Washington.

"Russia may find it convenient to raise the level of tension with Ukraine in the run-up to the December NATO review,'' Citigroup Inc.'s London-based David Lubin and Ali Al-Eyd wrote in a note to clients. "If the conflict with Russia decelerates or reverses Georgia's integration with the West, a similar fate could also affect Ukraine.''

Ukraine has a large Russian-speaking population in the south and east that opposes NATO entry and looks to Moscow. Russian officials warn that if President Viktor Yushchenko pushes Ukraine into NATO, the nation may split in two. Russia has made its displeasure with Ukraine clear in recent years, cutting off gas supplies to the country in 2005 and reducing deliveries earlier this year.

The military operation in Georgia will serve "as a warning'' to Ukraine that it should desist from petitioning for NATO entry, said Janusz Bugajski, director of the New European Democracies Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "Otherwise, Moscow may intervene to protect the allegedly threatened interests of the Russian population.''

An overly aggressive move by Russia against Ukraine might invite a backlash, said Renaissance Capital's Smith. "If it reacts too violently against Ukraine, then it risks provoking the reaction it least wants: trade and investment barriers for its companies, a more antagonistic approach to energy transit, and above all, it risks scaring Ukraine into seeking western protection,'' he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayrpPV6nJ4Qk&refer=home