Some pretty good observations, I think.

November 16, 2008 @ 9:29 am · Filed under Civilization Downfall

Most of my friends know that my hobby consists of reading Plato and looking for ways his predictions manifest themselves in our current civilization. Plato’s observation was that civilizations have a life cycle, starting with a clear goal and as that fragments, proceeding into an ultra-pluralistic state where eventually the citizens have nothing in common and democracy marches into tyranny.

As he was quick to point out, tyranny never looks like tyranny because if it did it would be wholly ineffective. It approaches instead with kindness. Like all dualistic things, this makes it more fun to try to spot, because its character is positive in appearance but negative in effect. People who know of this reading ignore me except when they’re scared, and then they ask questions.

In the suburban-urban circle of friends — play dates, beers on the porch, volunteering at the recycling center — the overwhelming question asked is: will white nationalists/supremacists assassinate Barack Obama?

My answer is no, for a simple reason. The white power fringe is nowhere near as organized or powerful as portrayed in the media. The two “assassination attempts” so far involved out of work guys high on meth talking big with no follow through. To assassinate a presidential candidate involves planning, deception, skill and knowledge of the subject’s movements; neither of the attempts listed so far had even an ounce of any of that (but they did have several ounces of meth).

When you read in your newspaper about white supremacists, statistics are often cited about how many white supremacist groups there are in the USA. What they don’t tell you is that most of these “groups” are two guys with meth, a computer, a shotgun and a Geocities page. The far-right is in a shambles in the United States and is unlikely to issue forth a coherent statement in the next twenty years, much less manage to even approach a presidential candidate.

Why do we hear so much about white supremacy then? To put it crudely, those who we depend on for our data make their money from overstating the threat. The ADL, SPLC, One People’s Project etc get donations every time they drum up a Nazi threat to minorities and religious minorities, so they turn two guys with a shotgun and a meth habit into an army of jackbooted fanatics. The money comes in. Mission accomplished.

So my verdict is that Obama’s safe. I just don’t see these disorganized, marginalized people mounting an attack. As an addendum to that, I think the people who watch them are pretty good — the law enforcement people, the FBI and secret service. One major reason they’re good is that when your targets can’t stop taking meth and buying illegal guns, it’s easy to turn informants. “Hold up there, Jethro, this looks like an ounce of meth and an unlicensed AK-47. Saaayyy… instead of doing 30 years in Cell Block Sodomy, how about you just keep us informed on what your fellow Knights of the Burning Auslander are doing? Keep it real, buddy.” They even pay off their informants in cold hard taxpayer cash because if you pay them for any rumor, you’ll get lots of tremors if anything real is going on.

There are far-right groups to watch, but generally they’re more of the rationale not race war types. They’re just not the ones to get press. I’ll break the list down for you here.

Groovers and Fakers

Stormfront
Not a white supremacist group as much as a giant discussion forum with 100,000 members, most of whom appear to be receiving disability.

Vanguard
Not a white supremacist group so much as a humor and news publication from a pro-white angle.

American Nazi Party
Moribund remnants of George Lincoln Rockwell’s party.

National Alliance
Moribund remnants of William Luther Pierce’s party.

National Socialist Movement
More interested in spiffy uniforms than action.

The Klan
Unable to achieve any action more organized than beating up Panamanian teens.

These groups, while they achieve the overwhelming majority of the media attention on this issue, are also the least likely to take action — and if they do take action, they’re the least likely to take organized, effective action with a chance of being effective. If these people decide to assassinate Obama, the safest place will be standing next to him.

Movers and Shakers

American Renaissance
Scientific race separatists who do nothing more extreme than hold a yearly conference at a major hotel chain.

Council of Conservative Citizens
Includes an opposition to multiculturalism.

Majority Rights
More displeased intellectuals. Pass the arugula.

Civic Platform
More scientific racists, traditionalists.

Libertarian National Socialist Green Party
No one is certain if they’re “for real” or not.

White Aryan Resistance
This group has been around forever but continues to grow.

In summary, we have some groups that are violent and ineffective, and others whose goal is to spread white supremacy rhetoric at parties and play dates. The former may try to assassinate President-Elect Obama, but will surely fail; the latter will not try, but will write nasty things on the internet about him. The FBI is watching both groups. I’m fairly certain he’s safe.

http://www.extremepolitics.org/2008/11/16/will-barack-obama-be-assassinated-by-the-far-right/