Austria’s hard right scents election success

FT.com

Eric Frey in Vienna and Haig Simonian in Zurich

July 22, 2008

Almost a decade after a remarkable poll success that propelled Austria’s rightwing Freedom party (FPÖ) into government and shocked the rest of Europe, it appears poised again to play a key political role.

Under its former leader, the populist Jörg Haider, the radically anti-immigrant and eurosceptic FPÖ won votes and international prominence – and condemnation.

Polls now suggest that it could hold the balance of power after snap elections called for September following the coalition government’s collapse this month.

A strong showing for the FPÖ – which polls put on 20 per cent support, almost double its showing in elections two years ago – could see Austria adopt a more hostile tone towards the rest of the European Union.

Heinz-Christian Strache, the FPÖ’s firebrand leader, has long favoured powerful anti-Brussels rhetoric. More recently, elements within the two main parties, the Social Democrats and the centre-right People’s party, have also adopted more eurosceptical tones, partly in an effort to blunt the popularity of Mr Strache.

“Hostility to Europe has become a potent force in Austrian politics. Strache’s Freedom party is reaping the fruits of the major parties’ inability to convey the advantages of EU membership and eastern enlargement to voters,” said Thomas Hofer, a political analyst.

The latest Eurobarometer poll shows only 28 per cent of respondents positive about the EU .

Both the main parties have ruled out forming a coalition with Mr Strache, who has vowed to remain in opposition. But even from outside government, Mr Strache, 39, who took over the party leadership in 2005 when Mr Haider broke away to set up a splinter party, has already managed to display influence.

The People’s party has grown tougher on immigration and opposes Turkey joining the EU and is committed to holding a referendum before any such step.

The Social Democrats have moved closer to the FPÖ on Europe. In a recent turnround, Alfred Gusenbauer, the chancellor and former party leader, and Werner Faymann, his successor as party chairman, demanded referendums on future EU treaties, including any significant revision of the Lisbon reform treaty already ratified by Austria.

This new eurosceptic tone could be a vote winner – or at least prevent a further decline for the Social Democrats, who have grown increasingly unpopular during Mr Gusenbauer’s 18 months as chancellor. He and Wilhelm Molterer, People’s party leader, are political veterans seen by critics as uncharismatic, long-time party apparatchiks.

By contrast, Mr Strache appears refreshing to many supporters. But his rhetoric is, if anything, even more strident than that of Mr Haider – especially on the subjects of Turkey and Muslim immigrants – and with no attempt to appeal to the centre. “Haider gathered old people nostalgic for the past. But today, the party’s supporters are mostly men in their 30s with extremely far-right views, and they are really scary,” says Peter Filzmeier, a political scientist. [color="Navy"]As a young man, Mr Strache was close to neo-Nazi groups, and he has refused to apologise for Nazi crimes or acknowledge any historical guilt.

In spite of such positions, he has not gained the same international notoriety as Mr Haider, who once commended the employment policies of the Third Reich.

Mr Haider used his electoral triumph in 1999, when he won close to 27 per cent, to become junior partner in a coalition led by the People’s party – a decision that drove Austria into temporary isolation as EU partners froze bilateral contacts.

While the two main parties rule out repeating such a deal, the prospect of another grand coalition – the only realistic alternative if the FPÖ were excluded from the next government – is also unappealing for the Social Democrats and the People’s Party. Such a move, says Mr Filzmeier, would “prolong [Mr Strache’s] success, and the next time he could be number two or even number one”.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c83a3cde-5779-11dd-916c-000077b07658.html

Heinz-Christian Strache