[Beware the :[]source, but interesting nonetheless.]

Putin's `Good Czar' Reign May Stay by Popular Demand (Update2)

By Henry Meyer

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The only voices in Russia's legislature opposing Vladimir Putin after Dec. 2 parliamentary elections won't be strangers to autocratic one-party rule. They're the Communists, who monopolized power in the Soviet era.

Putin ``has more power today than the pharaoh of Egypt, the czar and the Soviet Union's general secretary combined,'' says Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov.

After transforming the State Duma into a rubber stamp during eight years as president, Putin is about to turn the tables by making his successor subservient to a legislature dominated by the United Russia party -- and controlled by none other than parliamentary candidate Vladimir Putin. That way, he can continue running the country after relinquishing the presidency in May, delighting Russians who are reveling in the ninth year of an economic boom.

``Putin has followed a political strategy which has tremendous resonance in traditional Russian political culture, presenting himself as a `good czar' working for the benefit of the Russian people,'' says Andrew Kuchins, a Russia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

His continued sway, possibly as prime minister, will heighten Western concerns about the rollback of democratic freedoms in Russia as well as the government's opposition to U.S. missile-defense plans and new sanctions against Iran's nuclear program.

Much Loved

Putin, 55, is much loved by investors and the Russian public. A Nov. 9 to Nov. 12 poll by the Levada Center, a Moscow research firm, showed 67 percent of Russians would like him to remain president, though he is constitutionally barred from a third consecutive four-year term.

It's not hard to see why. When predecessor Boris Yeltsin resigned on Dec. 31, 1999, Putin inherited a government that had defaulted on $40 billion of debt and devalued the ruble, wiping out millions of people's savings and pushing Russia to the edge of bankruptcy.

Since then, the economy has grown almost 7 percent a year on average, fueled by high oil prices. Inflation dropped from an annual rate of 127 percent in July 1999 to 9 percent last year.

The value of publicly traded Russian stocks has increased by $1 trillion during Putin's reign. Last week, Bear Stearns Cos. upgraded its Russian stock recommendation, citing reduced political risk and Putin's ``intent to play an important role'' following the March 2, 2008, presidential election.

Centralizing Power

He amassed his power by systematically centralizing it. He drove legislation through parliament to end elections for regional governors, turning them into presidential appointees. After about 100 independents and minor-party candidates won Duma seats in 2003, new laws made opposition campaigns harder to win.

Previously, half of the Duma's 450 members were elected from districts, so opponents could win in areas where Putin wasn't popular. Now the entire Duma will be based on nationwide percentages, eliminating independent candidates. And the threshold for getting any seats was raised to 7 percent from 5 percent -- a significantly bigger hurdle for minor parties.

Putin has also acted to stifle the opposition. Police in St. Petersburg yesterday detained more than 100 protesters demonstrating against the government, including two parliamentary candidates for the pro-democracy party Union of Right Forces. A day earlier, police in Moscow arrested Garry Kasparov, the Russian chess champion turned opposition leader, for holding an unsanctioned protest.

`Realistic' Step

United Russia saw its already substantial public support leap after Putin announced Oct. 1 that he would lead its parliamentary candidate list. He also said becoming prime minister is a ``realistic'' next step after he quits the presidency.

While recent Russian media reports said a loophole might still allow him to run for a third term, his spokesman has dismissed that notion. The country's election chief, Vladimir Churov, today also rejected the idea. The Russian leader, meanwhile, has ruled out trying to water down the next president's constitutional powers.

His public statements suggest he considers such steps unnecessary. A United Russia victory next week, he said Nov. 13, would give him the ``moral right'' to continue guiding the country.

``A person who has such popularity and political weight as Putin in any case will have major influence in the country,'' says Dmitry Peskov, his spokesman. ``It will be for the country's benefit. The country will demand it.''

Another Run

Putin has hinted that he might run for the presidency again in 2012, and analysts say he may be able to return to the Kremlin sooner if he persuades his successor to step down mid- term.

The Levada poll put United Russia's public support at 67 percent and the Communist Party's at 14 percent. If no other party reaches the 7 percent threshold, that result would give Putin's party about 370 seats and the Communists 80.

Two other parties are struggling to surpass 7 percent. Even if they do, both the pro-Kremlin Fair Russia Party and the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia would probably support Putin. Two small opposition parties that got a handful of district seats in 2003 -- Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces -- have little hope this time.

``Opposition parties can't count on any support in today's Russia,'' says Sergei Mironov, speaker of parliament's upper house and Fair Russia's leader. ``Whatever they do, they have no chance because they are in opposition to Vladimir Putin.''

Duma's Power

A similar reality faces the next president if he defies Putin. ``Putin's role as leader will be guaranteed by the party and its parliamentary majority,'' United Russia leader Boris Gryzlov, the Duma's speaker, told a party meeting on Nov. 7.

The Duma, the lower house, can reject presidential appointments, including those for central-bank governor, prosecutor general and prime minister, the post that Putin is eyeing. The Duma also can use no-confidence votes to sack the central government, including every cabinet minister.

With their likely two-thirds-plus majority, Putin loyalists could even amend the constitution or impeach the president -- a fate that almost befell Yeltsin in 1999, when Communists were the Duma's largest party. Even regional governors are subject to approval by United Russia-led provincial legislatures.

``Formally, the president will put forward nominations, but the real decisions will be made elsewhere,'' says Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a Moscow-based political analyst. ``If the president doesn't behave as Putin likes, the Duma can impeach him or pass a vote of no confidence.''

Public Approval

Russians seem unconcerned with Putin's concentration of power. His personal approval ratings are above 80 percent, and about half the country supports having United Russia assume the Soviet-era Communist Party's monopoly role, according to a Levada poll last month.

December's election will be a Soviet-era throwback in another way: the first since 1996 without a major contingent of international observers. While Putin spokesman Peskov maintains that ``the elections will happen in a democratic atmosphere,'' the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe canceled its main monitoring mission, blaming Russian obstructionism.

Kuchins says Putin is likely to score ``a major electoral victory without the need to falsify the vote.'' Vladimir Ryzhkov, one of the Duma's last independent lawmakers and a Putin critic who will lose his seat under the new rules, isn't so sure. He predicts ``massive ballot-rigging'' to ensure United Russia two-thirds of the vote.

``:[]Pluralism will almost have been reduced to zero,'' says Ryzhkov. ``Putin personally has all the levers of power in his hands.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Henry Meyer in Moscow at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: November 26, 2007 06:50 EST

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