“Brexit vote will mean the end of the EU”

The Telegraph reports that Xavier Rolet, head of the London Stock Exchange (currently in merger talks with Deutsche Bőrse) says that Brexit could mean the “implosion” of the EU. While you may think that this is unequivocal good news, Rolet goes on to make a case for Remain, arguing that an economic melt-down might even require the US to come with a new Marshall Plan to “put Humpty Dumpty together again”.

I take a different view, and I think Humpty Dumpty might work a whole lot better as a creature of parts. I see Brexit as a step towards a simple European Free Trade Area, with no political superstructure. Independent, democratic nations linked only by free trade and voluntary intergovernmental cooperation. As I’ve said before, Brexit is not the end, but a new beginning.

Scaremongering bites back

The FT reports mounting fears in the currency markets as the EU Referendum approaches. Of course a certain amount of volatility and irrational paranoia were to be expected in the run-up to any major change in the EU’s architecture. But I believe that the market concerns have been seriously exacerbated by scaremongering from the Remain camp. David Cameron and his Remain colleagues bear a heavy load of responsibility here. They have deliberately sought to drive panic about the possible consequences of Brexit, and to talk up exaggerated risks in the most lurid terms. They must not be surprised if in talking down Britain’s prospects they also spook the financial markets. But they bear a very heavy burden of responsibility, and if their prophecies prove partly self-fulfilling, they will not be forgiven.

It’s also worth remembering that when we left the ERM in 1992, and the value of Sterling fell, that started a long-term sustained economic recovery. Brexit could do likewise.

And contrariwise: You’d expect foreign holidays to get more expensive as the Pound comes under pressure. But the Express headlines “Holiday Bargains as costs tumble”. While Sterling may be under pressure from Referendum volatility, the real economies of Southern Europe continue to suffer from economic malaise and the €uro, and holidays are consequently cheap. One could observe that the €uro has real and underlying problems, whereas the Sterling issue is merely a little froth in financial markets.

“Border chaos threatens deal to deport migrants”

The Times reports that the EU/Turkey deal is threatened with chaos, as the Greeks say they have “no idea” how many migrants will be deported, and far too few EU officials have arrived to implement the plan. Some reports say that 750 migrants will be deported today; others that today’s figure will be “nothing like 500”. The initial group are said to be mainly from the Indian sub-continent. Of course the whole deal is a one-for-one swap, so it makes no net difference to the numbers on either side. Meantime there is unrest in the holding camps on the Greek Islands, with some migra

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read full article at source: http://tapnewswire.com/2016/04/britain-wants-out-by-2-to-1-not-that-the-polls-will-tell-you/