From The TimesNovember 21, 2008

Vladimir Putin’s power is devalued as Russian economy falters

Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing
It is easy to be distracted by Vladimir Putin’s footwork as he seeks to extend his hold on power in Russia. It would be equally easy to lose sight of Russia’s new financial weakness, and how that could undermine his influence, whether as prime minister or as president again.

At the weekend’s G20 summit in Washington, Russia was almost silent. The contrast with China was startling. China, unlike Russia, has bought into the idea that it serves its own interest by embedding itself further into international rules and by taking a more prominent role in institutions.

It has talked about helping to prop up the International Monetary Fund. Its leaders beat the rest to an announcement of a fiscal stimulus - and may, through that, have bounced the gathering into a firmer agreement on that front than it otherwise would have managed.

But Russia’s economy looks far less confident than six months ago. The plunge in the oil price has turned the government budget from surplus to loss. The attempt to shore up the rouble has wiped out a fifth of its currency reserves. Many Russians - particularly the new rich - are shocked by the collapse of the stock market.

For all Putin’s apparent attempts to secure power (in his bid for longer terms for the presidency, to which he may well soon return), he may find that he is out of step with a generation preoccupied with personal wealth. That would undermine popular support for unachievable dreams of a return to the glories of empire.

It is almost comical how, in the two and a half weeks since Barack Obama’s election, some leaders have mishandled the shift in the US landscape. Russia heads the list. President Medvedev first issued a challenge to the US’s missile defence plans in Eastern Europe, then half took it back. It is hard to cause more offence to less purpose. But that is part of the recent confusion from the Russian leadership. There has been tough talk - and in Georgia, tough action - but that has only made potential allies wary while gaining little for Russia in territorial influence. You need to have a very firm belief that the old empire has been dismantled only temporarily to regard this as progress.

In the summer, Russia would have thought its position far stronger. Years of high oil prices had left its foreign currency reserves behind only those of China and Japan: $304 billion (£205 billion) in January 2007; about $470 billion at the end of last year, and nearly $600 billion in early August. But on Wednesday Sergei Ignatev, head of the Central Bank, said that the reserves were back to $475 billion - a fall of more than a fifth in three months. They were spent on defending the rouble, bailing out banks, and had also been revalued to take account of movements in currencies.

Meanwhile, the fall in the oil price - down by two thirds in four months - prompted by fears of world recession, has taken the Russian Government’s annual budget into the red. It has given countries which import oil a sense of power for the first time in years. The peak oil price in the summer coincided with the Russian military action in Georgia. The confidence displayed by Russia at the time now seems a distant memory.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article5201475.ece